Billy Beane didn’t win by signing shinier players. He won by pricing what the market ignored, using on-base percentage and building a system that compounded small edges.
B2B marketing has the same inefficiency today.
We keep optimising for good-looking numbers (CTR, MQL volume) that barely correlate with revenue.
I believe the 2025 edge goes to teams that buy undervalued signals and run their front office like… a front office.
The thesis
Modern B2B isn’t a battle for impressions; it’s a market for mispriced signals. The brands that win will:
define a win function tied to pipeline,
model expected value before conversions land, and
redeploy budget weekly into the most efficient “positions” (channels/creatives/supply paths).
Everything else is vibes.
1) Define the win function
Clicks don’t pay salaries. Opportunities do. Replace vanity metrics with a single north star:
Expected Pipeline Added (EPA)EPA = Σ_touches [ P(opportunity_in_30_days | touch) × Expected…
